North Korean situation is dangerous
  • Many seem not to realise just how dangerous the North Korea situation has become.

    It should be clear that NK is in a desperate and very determined hurry to develop tactical nuclear weapons; having big rockets and big bombs frightens no one. Only with tacticals can it present a viable deterrent, and it almost certainly feels it needs one.

    In 1994 it was hours away from having its nuclear facilities bombed, only to be rescued by Carter and the Agreed Framework with its promise of US recognition, which the US later discarded thinking NK was on the point of collapse. Since then it has made it patently clear that it wants that recognition - the one guarantee against another 1994 situation.

    Usually you do not set out to bomb someone you recognise; the other side's need for deterrents is greatly lessened..

    That 1994 lesson, plus that of Iraq (strongly mentioned by Kim Jong Il to anyone who would listen), must make NK aware of the danger of US preemptive attack now that it is clearly embarked on developing a tactical weapon. Inevitably the North Koreans will see recent US moves to further tighten screws, plus the re-emergence of human rights issues, as setting the scene to justify an Iraq-style preemptive attack, and this time with much more WMD and human rights justification than over Iraq.

    In this situation NK has no choice but to bluster - to try to show that it is ready and willing to retaliate the moment anyone moves against it. The situation is very similar to the Chinese bluster pre-1964 when they too faced a threat of US preemptive nuclear attack (they had already seen three threats earlier - 1953, 54, and 58). You have to show you are not afraid - in this case by Mao saying China could lose 300 million and still fight back.

    That NK cancellation of the 1953 armistice agreement is part of the same pattern. Many seem to think it is just part of the usual NK bluster. But it has real implications - showing how NK would and could move the moment it suffers preemptive attack..

    The surprising hardening of the Chinese position also has to be seen in this context. It is not just Beijing getting tired of its fractious friend; the Chinese got used to him a long time ago. It is Beijing realising there is now a real risk of the peninsula being thrown into chaos by a preemptive attack followed by a strong NK response. To stop that it has to try to do whatever it can.
  • North Korea will never perish by the bombing from the US but Japan can disappear from the earthquake, tsunami, or losing her population.
  • Losing her population in 50years can be the most possible factor.

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