north korea
  • The north korean situation could turn ugly.

    The latest NK nuclear test was said to indicate NK is moving to a capacity for creating small-scale, ie tactical, nuclear weapons.

    It is at this point its enemies can be expected to change course. Testing for a large scale weapon is a threat to no one. But tactical weapons mean it can retaliate effectively if attacked, and we know for a fact that in 1994 the US was just hours away from an attack on NK, forestalled only by the Carter visit and US-NK agreements - the Agreed Framework - that the US failed to keep.

    The temptation for the US once again to plan a preemptive attack on NK nuclear facilities must be strong. Such an attack would end NK's nuclear ambitions before it had the weapons needed to retaliate, and it would send a strong message to Iran.

    North Korea realises this (Kim Jong Il used to speak of Iraq as showing the US propensity for preemptive attack), which could explain the latest move to cancel the Armistice agreement.

    Like China before 1964, when you do not have the bomb and your enemies threaten use of the bomb you have no choice but to bluster, to pretend that you are not afraid of the bomb and are able to retaliate. Needless to say you will be condemned as sabre rattling and dangerous provocation by the Western hawks who remain oblivious to the dangerous, provocative behavior of their own side.
  • What is different before and after 1964 in China? you guys living long enough to know but I have not study that much in details in my history class.

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